Awesome Oscillator forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 5-minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 2:24 PM to 4:49 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 26, 2026 at 2:24 PM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the BTCUSD 5-minute chart read 2.47647. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:49 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-6.763-2.4341.895Sep 26, 2:24 PM ET4:49 PM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 2:24 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-6.763-2.4341.895Sep 26, 2:24 PM ET4:49 PM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:24 PM ET2.47647
Projected value at 4:49 PM ET0.0375028
Actual value at 4:49 PM ET-1.01838
Projected change across the window-2.43897
Actual change across the window-3.49485
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.70×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.70 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 19 (3:54 PM ET), where they sat 0.00979929 apart, and furthest at bar 11 (3:19 PM ET) with a gap of 6.56152. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 4 (2:44 PM ET), a move of -1.85. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:29 PM-0.6750120.626471+1.30148
62:54 PM-1.31322-6.25662-4.9434
123:24 PM-0.658891-7.03997-6.38108
183:54 PM-0.009652230.00014706+0.00979929
244:24 PM0.0803344-0.534235-0.61457
294:49 PM0.0375028-1.01838-1.05589

About Awesome Oscillator on a 5-minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 5-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.