Awesome Oscillator prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 5 minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 2:18 PM to 4:43 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 26, 2026 at 2:18 PM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the BTCUSD 5 minute chart read -21.877. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:43 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-20.19-7.614.969Sep 26, 2:18 PM ET4:43 PM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 2:18 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-20.19-7.614.969Sep 26, 2:18 PM ET4:43 PM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:18 PM ET-21.877
Projected value at 4:43 PM ET0.340102
Actual value at 4:43 PM ET6.65797
Projected change across the window+22.2171
Actual change across the window+28.535
Bars moving the same direction27 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.78×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.78 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 93% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 4 (2:33 PM ET), where they sat 0.0291018 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (2:18 PM ET) with a gap of 12.775. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 2 (2:28 PM ET), a move of +6.00494. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:23 PM-8.36556-16.4184-8.05282
62:48 PM-5.72835-7.05471-1.32636
123:18 PM-3.46531-1.10235+2.36295
183:48 PM-1.9494-0.0251176+1.92428
244:18 PM-0.5083482.32929+2.83764
294:43 PM0.3401026.65797+6.31787

About Awesome Oscillator on a 5 minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.