Awesome Oscillator prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 5 minute chart, September 25, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 25, 2026, 6:15 PM to 8:40 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 25, 2026 at 6:15 PM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the BTCUSD 5 minute chart read 11.6862. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:40 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-14.89-1.74711.4Sep 25, 6:15 PM ET8:40 PM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 6:15 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-14.89-1.74711.4Sep 25, 6:15 PM ET8:40 PM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:15 PM ET11.6862
Projected value at 8:40 PM ET0.0662009
Actual value at 8:40 PM ET-9.64438
Projected change across the window-11.62
Actual change across the window-21.3306
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading23 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.54×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.54 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 23 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 11 (7:05 PM ET), where they sat 0.747683 apart, and furthest at bar 24 (8:15 PM ET) with a gap of 17.8346. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 10 (7:05 PM ET), a move of -2.87006. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:20 PM6.7125212.1078+5.39527
66:45 PM5.8390512.9046+7.06557
127:15 PM4.085720.217618-3.8681
187:45 PM2.85424-9.99582-12.8501
248:15 PM1.17788-16.6567-17.8346
298:40 PM0.0662009-9.64438-9.71058

About Awesome Oscillator on a 5 minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.