Awesome Oscillator forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 5-minute chart, September 25, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 25, 2026, 6:09 PM to 8:34 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 25, 2026 at 6:09 PM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the BTCUSD 5-minute chart read 13.7904. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:34 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-0.81786.49213.8Sep 25, 6:09 PM ET8:34 PM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 6:09 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-0.81786.49213.8Sep 25, 6:09 PM ET8:34 PM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:09 PM ET13.7904
Projected value at 8:34 PM ET0.544543
Actual value at 8:34 PM ET2.73685
Projected change across the window-13.2459
Actual change across the window-11.0536
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.20×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.20 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 10 (6:54 PM ET), where they sat 0.326469 apart, and furthest at bar 19 (7:44 PM ET) with a gap of 6.31064. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 11 (7:04 PM ET), a move of -2.32591. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:14 PM13.393214.117+0.723788
66:39 PM11.225814.5152+3.28945
127:09 PM8.093914.37724-3.71667
187:39 PM4.95917-1.22624-6.1854
248:09 PM2.284654.87865+2.594
298:34 PM0.5445432.73685+2.19231

About Awesome Oscillator on a 5-minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 5-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.