Awesome Oscillator forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 5-minute chart, September 25, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 25, 2026, 5:32 PM to 7:57 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 25, 2026 at 5:32 PM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the BTCUSD 5-minute chart read 39.6601. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:57 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-51.42-8.74333.93Sep 25, 5:32 PM ET7:57 PM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 5:32 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-51.42-8.74333.93Sep 25, 5:32 PM ET7:57 PM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 5:32 PM ET39.6601
Projected value at 7:57 PM ET0.00703638
Actual value at 7:57 PM ET-38.1828
Projected change across the window-39.653
Actual change across the window-77.8429
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.51×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.51 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 8 (6:07 PM ET), where they sat 0.152471 apart, and furthest at bar 17 (6:57 PM ET) with a gap of 55.1842. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 6 (6:02 PM ET), a move of -11.4188. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
15:37 PM-0.024731839.3857+39.4104
66:02 PM-0.9818569.51494+10.4968
126:32 PM-2.02682-35.1498-33.123
187:02 PM-1.73592-55.7273-53.9913
247:32 PM-0.451681-38.0689-37.6173
297:57 PM0.00703638-38.1828-38.1898

About Awesome Oscillator on a 5-minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 5-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.