Awesome Oscillator forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 45-minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 4:53 PM to 2:38 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 26, 2026 at 4:53 PM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the BTCUSD 45-minute chart read 23.6809. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:38 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-25.329.88845.1Sep 26, 4:53 PM ET2:38 PM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 4:53 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-25.329.88845.1Sep 26, 4:53 PM ET2:38 PM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:53 PM ET23.6809
Projected value at 2:38 PM ET5.44664
Actual value at 2:38 PM ET10.5148
Projected change across the window-18.2342
Actual change across the window-13.1661
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading23 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.38×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.38 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 23 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 19 (6:23 AM ET), where they sat 0.137251 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (4:53 PM ET) with a gap of 53.7293. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 22 (9:23 AM ET), a move of -6.56624. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
15:38 PM-5.4750328.5034+33.9784
69:23 PM30.292427.6118-2.6806
121:53 AM46.021827.8054-18.2164
186:23 AM42.733342.8706+0.137251
2410:53 AM27.25812.5159-14.7421
292:38 PM5.4466410.5148+5.06812

About Awesome Oscillator on a 45-minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 45-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 22.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 22.5 hours of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.