Awesome Oscillator forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 30-minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 5:34 PM to 8:04 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 26, 2026 at 5:34 PM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the BTCUSD 30-minute chart read 16.6061. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:04 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-39.37-4.39330.59Sep 26, 5:34 PM ET8:04 AM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 5:34 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-39.37-4.39330.59Sep 26, 5:34 PM ET8:04 AM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 5:34 PM ET16.6061
Projected value at 8:04 AM ET-0.108891
Actual value at 8:04 AM ET-8.21682
Projected change across the window-16.715
Actual change across the window-24.823
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading20 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.67×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.67 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 20 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 29 (7:34 AM ET), where they sat 6.36411 apart, and furthest at bar 19 (3:04 AM ET) with a gap of 46.6572. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 24 (5:34 AM ET), a move of +8.25129. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:04 PM35.284215.4122-19.872
68:34 PM27.239111.2983-15.9408
1211:34 PM11.6215-11.4571-23.0786
182:34 AM4.17175-39.3045-43.4763
245:34 AM-1.17074-21.8522-20.6815
298:04 AM-0.108891-8.21682-8.10793

About Awesome Oscillator on a 30-minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 30-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 15 hours of trading, so the window above describes 15 hours of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.