Awesome Oscillator forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 30-minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 2:44 PM to 5:14 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 26, 2026 at 2:44 PM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the BTCUSD 30-minute chart read -18.2967. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:14 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-22-11.02-0.03976Sep 26, 2:44 PM ET5:14 AM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 2:44 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-22-11.02-0.03976Sep 26, 2:44 PM ET5:14 AM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:44 PM ET-18.2967
Projected value at 5:14 AM ET-0.102932
Actual value at 5:14 AM ET1.43521
Projected change across the window+18.1938
Actual change across the window+19.7319
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.92×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.92 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 4 (4:14 PM ET), where they sat 0.0314653 apart, and furthest at bar 15 (10:14 PM ET) with a gap of 8.32215. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 7 (6:14 PM ET), a move of +3.73729. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:14 PM-22.2907-18.3728+3.91785
65:44 PM-19.1639-20.5404-1.37652
128:44 PM-10.7315-17.5865-6.85494
1811:44 PM-3.8045-9.25253-5.44803
242:44 AM-1.04525-2.57641-1.53116
295:14 AM-0.1029321.43521+1.53814

About Awesome Oscillator on a 30-minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 30-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 15 hours of trading, so the window above describes 15 hours of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.