Awesome Oscillator forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 15-minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 4:16 PM to 11:31 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 26, 2026 at 4:16 PM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the BTCUSD 15-minute chart read -38.0129. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:31 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-34.75-10.4713.82Sep 26, 4:16 PM ET11:31 PM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 4:16 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-34.75-10.4713.82Sep 26, 4:16 PM ET11:31 PM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:16 PM ET-38.0129
Projected value at 11:31 PM ET1.30738
Actual value at 11:31 PM ET-16.4219
Projected change across the window+39.3203
Actual change across the window+21.5911
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.82×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.82 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 14 (7:31 PM ET), where they sat 6.48681 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (4:31 PM ET) with a gap of 50.3547. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 12 (7:16 PM ET), a move of +5.19815. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:31 PM14.1917-36.163-50.3547
65:46 PM16.6377-19.0597-35.6974
127:16 PM9.937820.746706-9.19111
188:46 PM6.5871-8.18371-14.7708
2410:16 PM4.50864-13.2574-17.7661
2911:31 PM1.30738-16.4219-17.7293

About Awesome Oscillator on a 15-minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 15-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 7.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 7.5 hours of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.