Awesome Oscillator forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 15-minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 1:22 PM to 8:37 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 26, 2026 at 1:22 PM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the BTCUSD 15-minute chart read -4.48956. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:37 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-5.567-0.51534.536Sep 26, 1:22 PM ET8:37 PM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 1:22 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-5.567-0.51534.536Sep 26, 1:22 PM ET8:37 PM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:22 PM ET-4.48956
Projected value at 8:37 PM ET0.156167
Actual value at 8:37 PM ET2.1075
Projected change across the window+4.64573
Actual change across the window+6.59706
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.70×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.70 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 21 (6:22 PM ET), where they sat 0.393217 apart, and furthest at bar 13 (4:37 PM ET) with a gap of 7.15611. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 2 (1:52 PM ET), a move of +2.02256. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:37 PM1.78297-2.54112-4.32409
62:52 PM4.489070.946618-3.54246
124:22 PM0.842415-4.34462-5.18703
185:52 PM0.80738-0.549618-1.357
247:22 PM-0.402263.32241+3.72467
298:37 PM0.1561672.1075+1.95133

About Awesome Oscillator on a 15-minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 15-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 7.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 7.5 hours of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.