Awesome Oscillator forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 15-minute chart, September 25, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 25, 2026, 6:42 PM to 1:57 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 25, 2026 at 6:42 PM ET, Awesome Oscillator on the BTCUSD 15-minute chart read 51.9334. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:57 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-45.580.107345.8Sep 25, 6:42 PM ET1:57 AM ET
Projected Awesome Oscillator path, 30 bars from 6:42 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-45.580.107345.8Sep 25, 6:42 PM ET1:57 AM ET
Recorded Awesome Oscillator values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:42 PM ET51.9334
Projected value at 1:57 AM ET1.57277
Actual value at 1:57 AM ET-10.7121
Projected change across the window-50.3606
Actual change across the window-62.6454
Bars moving the same direction23 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.80×

Reading this window

The projection called for Awesome Oscillator to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.80 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 79% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 7 (8:12 PM ET), where they sat 1.56647 apart, and furthest at bar 22 (12:12 AM ET) with a gap of 53.0316. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 7 (8:27 PM ET), a move of -10.0954. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:57 PM15.048746.5867+31.538
68:12 PM12.704211.1377-1.56647
129:42 PM6.6787-30.6863-37.365
1811:12 PM3.10198-41.5488-44.6507
2412:42 AM1.57103-38.1719-39.7429
291:57 AM1.57277-10.7121-12.2849

About Awesome Oscillator on a 15-minute chart

The Awesome Oscillator measures the gap between a short and a longer moving average of bar midpoints, so it reflects shifts in momentum rather than price level. On the 15-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 7.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 7.5 hours of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.