Educational reference. Data covers October 8, 2026, 11:38 AM to 2:03 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.
On October 8, 2026 at 11:38 AM ET, Average True Range on the E mini Nasdaq 100 5 minute chart read 25.5488. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:03 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.
| Reading at 11:38 AM ET | 25.5488 |
|---|---|
| Projected value at 2:03 PM ET | 38.9496 |
| Actual value at 2:03 PM ET | 35.8363 |
| Projected change across the window | +13.4008 |
| Actual change across the window | +10.2875 |
| Bars moving the same direction | 22 of 29 |
| Bars on the projected side of the opening reading | 29 of 30 |
| Projected move relative to actual | 1.30× |
The projection called for Average True Range to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.30 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.
The two paths were closest at bar 27 (1:48 PM ET), where they sat 1.20763 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (11:38 AM ET) with a gap of 7.14015. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 15 (12:53 PM ET), a move of +1.29363. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.
Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.
| Bar | Time (ET) | Projected | Recorded | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:43 AM | 33.1687 | 26.1872 | -6.98146 |
| 6 | 12:08 PM | 34.9156 | 30.4375 | -4.47801 |
| 12 | 12:38 PM | 36.5667 | 33.2467 | -3.31998 |
| 18 | 1:08 PM | 37.7072 | 34.928 | -2.77917 |
| 24 | 1:38 PM | 38.3869 | 36.8161 | -1.5708 |
| 29 | 2:03 PM | 38.9496 | 35.8363 | -3.11334 |
Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.
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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.