Average True Range prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 59 minute chart, September 22, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 22, 2026, 10:35 AM to 3:06 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 22, 2026 at 10:35 AM ET, Average True Range on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 59 minute chart read 7.77491. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:06 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

8.35512.6716.99Sep 22, 10:35 AM ET3:06 PM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 10:35 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

8.35512.6716.99Sep 22, 10:35 AM ET3:06 PM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:35 AM ET7.77491
Projected value at 3:06 PM ET17.4586
Actual value at 3:06 PM ET12.8495
Projected change across the window+9.68369
Actual change across the window+5.07462
Bars moving the same direction24 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.91×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.91 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 83% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (1:08 PM ET), where they sat 4.12826 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (10:35 AM ET) with a gap of 7.7603. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (2:07 PM ET), a move of -0.619674. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:34 AM15.62177.93067-7.69101
64:29 PM16.08659.10395-6.98251
1210:23 PM16.80479.63498-7.16974
184:17 AM17.076910.7453-6.33162
2410:11 AM17.329612.5073-4.82227
293:06 PM17.458612.8495-4.60907

About Average True Range on a 59 minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 59 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 29.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 29.5 hours of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.