Average True Range prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 59 minute chart, September 21, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 21, 2026, 9:50 PM to 2:21 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 21, 2026 at 9:50 PM ET, Average True Range on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 59 minute chart read 4.36143. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:21 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

4.687.0529.424Sep 21, 9:50 PM ET2:21 AM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 9:50 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

4.687.0529.424Sep 21, 9:50 PM ET2:21 AM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:50 PM ET4.36143
Projected value at 2:21 AM ET9.74271
Actual value at 2:21 AM ET7.08979
Projected change across the window+5.38128
Actual change across the window+2.72837
Bars moving the same direction23 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.97×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.97 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 79% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (2:21 AM ET), where they sat 2.65292 apart, and furthest at bar 5 (2:45 AM ET) with a gap of 4.8324. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 23 (8:27 PM ET), a move of +0.255708. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:49 PM9.150594.38923-4.76136
63:44 AM9.360274.64331-4.71695
129:38 AM9.509965.15953-4.35042
183:32 PM9.593765.45546-4.1383
249:26 PM9.622896.31683-3.30606
292:21 AM9.742717.08979-2.65292

About Average True Range on a 59 minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 59 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 29.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 29.5 hours of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.