Average True Range forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 8:55 AM to 9:24 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 8:55 AM ET, Average True Range on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 9.70248. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:24 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

8.90910.1111.3Sep 29, 8:55 AM ET9:24 AM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 8:55 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

8.90910.1111.3Sep 29, 8:55 AM ET9:24 AM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:55 AM ET9.70248
Projected value at 9:24 AM ET10.7886
Actual value at 9:24 AM ET10.5651
Projected change across the window+1.08614
Actual change across the window+0.862664
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.26×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.26 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 3 (8:57 AM ET), where they sat 0.00730691 apart, and furthest at bar 6 (9:01 AM ET) with a gap of 1.29368. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 26 (9:21 AM ET), a move of -0.513533. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:56 AM9.552129.60267+0.0505456
69:01 AM10.04218.74846-1.29368
129:07 AM10.37969.94282-0.436766
189:13 AM10.57710.0137-0.563276
249:19 AM10.718911.4616+0.74276
299:24 AM10.788610.5651-0.223476

About Average True Range on a 1-minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.