Average True Range prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 1:44 AM to 2:13 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 29, 2026 at 1:44 AM ET, Average True Range on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 13.558. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:13 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.7413.8614.97Sep 29, 1:44 AM ET2:13 AM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 1:44 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.7413.8614.97Sep 29, 1:44 AM ET2:13 AM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:44 AM ET13.558
Projected value at 2:13 AM ET15.1168
Actual value at 2:13 AM ET12.5914
Projected change across the window+1.55886
Actual change across the window-0.966548
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.61×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to rise, while it fell instead. The projection overshot: it called for 1.61 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 12 (1:55 AM ET), where they sat 0.00872958 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (2:13 AM ET) with a gap of 2.52541. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 26 (2:10 AM ET), a move of -1.20427. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:45 AM13.298313.5047+0.206444
61:50 AM13.965613.2266-0.738985
121:56 AM14.493714.6386+0.144861
182:02 AM14.830713.9493-0.881424
242:08 AM15.064614.5163-0.54834
292:13 AM15.116812.5914-2.52541

About Average True Range on a 1 minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.