Average True Range prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 11, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 11, 2026, 4:02 PM to 4:31 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 11, 2026 at 4:02 PM ET, Average True Range on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 11.9809. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:31 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

9.63511.5613.48Sep 11, 4:02 PM ET4:31 PM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 4:02 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

9.63511.5613.48Sep 11, 4:02 PM ET4:31 PM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:02 PM ET11.9809
Projected value at 4:31 PM ET9.90245
Actual value at 4:31 PM ET13.5287
Projected change across the window-2.07846
Actual change across the window+1.5478
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.34×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to fall, while it rose instead. The projection overshot: it called for 1.34 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 12 (4:13 PM ET), where they sat 1.37402 apart, and furthest at bar 28 (4:30 PM ET) with a gap of 3.85296. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 20 (4:22 PM ET), a move of +0.524608. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:03 PM9.4001511.691+2.29084
64:08 PM9.5642611.2762+1.71194
124:14 PM9.7138811.2122+1.49831
184:20 PM9.7384911.8149+2.07641
244:26 PM9.7930613.2747+3.48161
294:31 PM9.9024513.5287+3.62626

About Average True Range on a 1 minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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NT8 how is prediction accuracy measured for Micro Nasdaq 100 futures A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.