Average True Range forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 9, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 9, 2026, 10:36 AM to 11:05 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 9, 2026 at 10:36 AM ET, Average True Range on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 11.7354. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:05 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.2115.7319.24Sep 9, 10:36 AM ET11:05 AM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 10:36 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.2115.7319.24Sep 9, 10:36 AM ET11:05 AM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:36 AM ET11.7354
Projected value at 11:05 AM ET19.398
Actual value at 11:05 AM ET15.8853
Projected change across the window+7.66254
Actual change across the window+4.14986
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.85×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.85 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 29 (11:04 AM ET), where they sat 2.83596 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (10:36 AM ET) with a gap of 7.71896. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 21 (10:57 AM ET), a move of -0.659507. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:37 AM19.38311.9843-7.39868
610:42 AM19.371113.1682-6.20287
1210:48 AM19.448414.5768-4.87157
1810:54 AM19.400115.8536-3.54646
2411:00 AM19.43215.6812-3.75077
2911:05 AM19.39815.8853-3.51268

About Average True Range on a 1-minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.