Average True Range prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 3, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 3, 2026, 1:02 PM to 1:31 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 3, 2026 at 1:02 PM ET, Average True Range on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 14.9438. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:31 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

10.8514.0817.3Sep 3, 1:02 PM ET1:31 PM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 1:02 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

10.8514.0817.3Sep 3, 1:02 PM ET1:31 PM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:02 PM ET14.9438
Projected value at 1:31 PM ET16.5543
Actual value at 1:31 PM ET17.4019
Projected change across the window+1.61046
Actual change across the window+2.45811
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.66×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.66 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 21 (1:22 PM ET), where they sat 0.0531496 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (1:02 PM ET) with a gap of 4.52198. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 3 (1:05 PM ET), a move of -1.72884. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:03 PM10.96715.3626+4.39554
61:08 PM12.92614.8489+1.92294
121:14 PM14.601814.0199-0.581893
181:20 PM15.549515.4509-0.0986205
241:26 PM16.150416.7313+0.58085
291:31 PM16.554317.4019+0.847657

About Average True Range on a 1 minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.