Average True Range prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 1:37 PM to 2:06 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 27, 2026 at 1:37 PM ET, Average True Range on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 57.3857. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:06 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

26.941.1955.47Sep 27, 1:37 PM ET2:06 PM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 1:37 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

26.941.1955.47Sep 27, 1:37 PM ET2:06 PM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:37 PM ET57.3857
Projected value at 2:06 PM ET32.7753
Actual value at 2:06 PM ET44.7364
Projected change across the window-24.6104
Actual change across the window-12.6492
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.95×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.95 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 11 (1:47 PM ET), where they sat 5.9663 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (1:37 PM ET) with a gap of 32.4001. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 5 (1:42 PM ET), a move of -9.26195. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:38 PM25.632653.083+27.4504
61:43 PM28.097541.9337+13.8362
121:49 PM29.886936.6307+6.74379
181:55 PM31.336842.7832+11.4465
242:01 PM32.16350.5354+18.3724
292:06 PM32.775344.7364+11.9612

About Average True Range on a 1 minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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NinjaTrader timeframe based prediction accuracy PredictIndicators draws the predicted next 30 candles of BTCUSD on your NinjaTrader 8 chart, to the right of the last bar, and updates them in real time. They are predictions, not certainties. NinjaTrader 8 price prediction indicator →

MetaTrader micro futures AI chart analysis for BTCUSD PredictIndicators brings predicted candles to MetaTrader 5: the next 30 BTCUSD bars appear on your MT5 chart and update in real time. A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. MetaTrader 5 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.