Average True Range prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 6:54 AM to 7:23 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 27, 2026 at 6:54 AM ET, Average True Range on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 14.5828. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:23 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

15.4323.2331.03Sep 27, 6:54 AM ET7:23 AM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 6:54 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

15.4323.2331.03Sep 27, 6:54 AM ET7:23 AM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:54 AM ET14.5828
Projected value at 7:23 AM ET32.0726
Actual value at 7:23 AM ET24.1624
Projected change across the window+17.4898
Actual change across the window+9.5796
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.83×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.83 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (7:23 AM ET), where they sat 7.91019 apart, and furthest at bar 6 (7:00 AM ET) with a gap of 12.8778. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 5 (6:59 AM ET), a move of -1.70392. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:55 AM25.657814.3853-11.2724
67:00 AM27.961915.084-12.8778
127:06 AM29.847219.4289-10.4183
187:12 AM31.090120.5462-10.544
247:18 AM31.704621.0498-10.6548
297:23 AM32.072624.1624-7.91019

About Average True Range on a 1 minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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NinjaTrader future overbought oversold analysis PredictIndicators draws the predicted next 30 candles of BTCUSD on your NinjaTrader 8 chart, to the right of the last bar, and updates them in real time. They are predictions, not certainties. NinjaTrader 8 price prediction indicator →

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.