Average True Range forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 6:02 AM to 6:31 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 6:02 AM ET, Average True Range on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 20.0584. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:31 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

14.0623.0331.99Sep 27, 6:02 AM ET6:31 AM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 6:02 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

14.0623.0331.99Sep 27, 6:02 AM ET6:31 AM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:02 AM ET20.0584
Projected value at 6:31 AM ET32.2473
Actual value at 6:31 AM ET12.8586
Projected change across the window+12.1889
Actual change across the window-7.19975
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.69×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to rise, while it fell instead. The projection overshot: it called for 1.69 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 25 (6:26 AM ET), where they sat 0.0925119 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (6:31 AM ET) with a gap of 19.3887. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 27 (6:29 AM ET), a move of -6.22024. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:03 AM33.194820.4267-12.768
66:08 AM32.958619.0738-13.8848
126:14 AM33.099124.9658-8.13329
186:20 AM32.692427.7665-4.92584
246:26 AM32.922132.8296-0.0925119
296:31 AM32.247312.8586-19.3887

About Average True Range on a 1-minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.