Average True Range prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 3:17 AM to 3:46 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 27, 2026 at 3:17 AM ET, Average True Range on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 11.682. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:46 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

10.3713.3616.36Sep 27, 3:17 AM ET3:46 AM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 3:17 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

10.3713.3616.36Sep 27, 3:17 AM ET3:46 AM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:17 AM ET11.682
Projected value at 3:46 AM ET13.4758
Actual value at 3:46 AM ET13.1282
Projected change across the window+1.79376
Actual change across the window+1.44621
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading18 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.24×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.24 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 18 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 2 (3:18 AM ET), where they sat 0.137686 apart, and furthest at bar 8 (3:25 AM ET) with a gap of 3.94394. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 10 (3:27 AM ET), a move of -3.86568. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:18 AM12.442212.5799+0.137686
63:23 AM12.755414.9197+2.16428
123:29 AM13.068712.3969-0.671768
183:35 AM13.269510.5623-2.70727
243:41 AM13.310611.4912-1.81944
293:46 AM13.475813.1282-0.347547

About Average True Range on a 1 minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.