Average True Range prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 2:44 AM to 3:13 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 27, 2026 at 2:44 AM ET, Average True Range on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 10.7892. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:13 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

11.4416.321.16Sep 27, 2:44 AM ET3:13 AM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 2:44 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

11.4416.321.16Sep 27, 2:44 AM ET3:13 AM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:44 AM ET10.7892
Projected value at 3:13 AM ET18.6581
Actual value at 3:13 AM ET21.1581
Projected change across the window+7.86886
Actual change across the window+10.3689
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.76×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.76 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 19 (3:02 AM ET), where they sat 0.170036 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (2:44 AM ET) with a gap of 7.50349. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 27 (3:11 AM ET), a move of -1.85557. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:45 AM18.318811.6184-6.70044
62:50 AM18.406714.4989-3.9078
122:56 AM18.631616.2005-2.4311
183:02 AM18.421718.2517-0.170036
243:08 AM18.420620.7495+2.32883
293:13 AM18.658121.1581+2.50002

About Average True Range on a 1 minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Best AI ATR for MetaTrader Yes. Alongside the regular ATR, PredictIndicators shows where the ATR is predicted to go next on BTCUSD, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ATR indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NT8 ADX prediction accuracy for Bitcoin A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

How to install a prediction indicator in MT5 for BTCUSD In NinjaTrader 8 import the zip with Tools → Import → NinjaScript Add On; in MetaTrader 5 run the setup. Then add PredictIndicators to your BTCUSD chart. How to install →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.