Average True Range prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 2:42 AM to 3:11 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 27, 2026 at 2:42 AM ET, Average True Range on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 12.029. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:11 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.6817.5522.42Sep 27, 2:42 AM ET3:11 AM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 2:42 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.6817.5522.42Sep 27, 2:42 AM ET3:11 AM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:42 AM ET12.029
Projected value at 3:11 AM ET21.7638
Actual value at 3:11 AM ET23.0753
Projected change across the window+9.73474
Actual change across the window+11.0463
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.88×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.88 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 22 (3:03 AM ET), where they sat 0.0748754 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (2:42 AM ET) with a gap of 8.08658. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 25 (3:07 AM ET), a move of -1.85557. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:43 AM20.15712.9536-7.20347
62:48 AM20.613414.4388-6.1746
122:54 AM20.780117.3908-3.38936
183:00 AM21.171219.5515-1.61975
243:06 AM21.587321.8175+0.230207
293:11 AM21.763823.0753+1.31153

About Average True Range on a 1 minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Chat with chart ATR for MT5 Yes. Alongside the regular ATR, PredictIndicators shows where the ATR is predicted to go next on BTCUSD, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ATR indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

Next candle prediction indicator for BTCUSD PredictIndicators is a next candle prediction indicator: it draws the predicted next candles of BTCUSD, up to 30 bars ahead, on your NinjaTrader 8 or MetaTrader 5 chart and redraws them as each bar closes. Next candle prediction indicator →

Is there an AI chat inside MetaTrader 5 for BTCUSD? A general chatbot only sees a screenshot. The PredictIndicators chat indicator reads your live BTCUSD chart in NinjaTrader 8 or MT5, including every indicator you have open and the predicted candles. ChatGPT for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.