Average True Range forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 2:42 AM to 3:11 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 2:42 AM ET, Average True Range on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 12.029. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:11 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.6817.5522.42Sep 27, 2:42 AM ET3:11 AM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 2:42 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.6817.5522.42Sep 27, 2:42 AM ET3:11 AM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:42 AM ET12.029
Projected value at 3:11 AM ET21.7638
Actual value at 3:11 AM ET23.0753
Projected change across the window+9.73474
Actual change across the window+11.0463
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.88×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.88 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 22 (3:03 AM ET), where they sat 0.0748754 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (2:42 AM ET) with a gap of 8.08658. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 25 (3:07 AM ET), a move of -1.85557. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:43 AM20.15712.9536-7.20347
62:48 AM20.613414.4388-6.1746
122:54 AM20.780117.3908-3.38936
183:00 AM21.171219.5515-1.61975
243:06 AM21.587321.8175+0.230207
293:11 AM21.763823.0753+1.31153

About Average True Range on a 1-minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.