Average True Range prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 12:25 AM to 12:54 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 27, 2026 at 12:25 AM ET, Average True Range on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 17.9197. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:54 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

17.4223.0828.74Sep 27, 12:25 AM ET12:54 AM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 12:25 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

17.4223.0828.74Sep 27, 12:25 AM ET12:54 AM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:25 AM ET17.9197
Projected value at 12:54 AM ET21.1413
Actual value at 12:54 AM ET21.885
Projected change across the window+3.22158
Actual change across the window+3.9653
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.81×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.81 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 10 (12:34 AM ET), where they sat 0.102274 apart, and furthest at bar 22 (12:47 AM ET) with a gap of 8.77683. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 25 (12:50 AM ET), a move of -2.46926. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:26 AM17.066418.0512+0.984855
612:31 AM18.466318.9206+0.45428
1212:37 AM19.873620.72+0.846448
1812:43 AM20.407424.6848+4.27744
2412:49 AM20.909427.3697+6.4603
2912:54 AM21.141321.885+0.743716

About Average True Range on a 1 minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.