Average True Range prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 12:23 AM to 12:52 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 27, 2026 at 12:23 AM ET, Average True Range on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 18.0512. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:52 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

17.5123.1328.75Sep 27, 12:23 AM ET12:52 AM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 12:23 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

17.5123.1328.75Sep 27, 12:23 AM ET12:52 AM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:23 AM ET18.0512
Projected value at 12:52 AM ET21.2546
Actual value at 12:52 AM ET23.3731
Projected change across the window+3.20335
Actual change across the window+5.32186
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.60×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.60 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 9 (12:31 AM ET), where they sat 0.141316 apart, and furthest at bar 21 (12:44 AM ET) with a gap of 8.81069. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 24 (12:47 AM ET), a move of -2.46926. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:24 AM17.492517.9783+0.48578
612:29 AM18.872216.7522-2.12003
1212:35 AM19.718621.2608+1.54222
1812:41 AM20.362525.8406+5.47812
2412:47 AM20.872624.9004+4.02778
2912:52 AM21.254623.3731+2.11851

About Average True Range on a 1 minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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How do I add the BTCUSD prediction indicator in NinjaTrader 8? Download PredictIndicators for your platform, activate the 3 day free licence and add it to your BTCUSD chart: the predicted candles appear right away. How to install →

MetaTrader live prediction verification for Bitcoin A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.