Average True Range prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 11:01 PM to 11:30 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 26, 2026 at 11:01 PM ET, Average True Range on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 22.6928. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:30 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

11.8320.0528.28Sep 26, 11:01 PM ET11:30 PM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 11:01 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

11.8320.0528.28Sep 26, 11:01 PM ET11:30 PM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:01 PM ET22.6928
Projected value at 11:30 PM ET15.1649
Actual value at 11:30 PM ET29.3819
Projected change across the window-7.52791
Actual change across the window+6.68919
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading20 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.13×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to fall, while it rose instead. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.13 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 20 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 12 (11:12 PM ET), where they sat 4.28071 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (11:30 PM ET) with a gap of 14.2171. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 1 (11:02 PM ET), a move of -1.8421. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:02 PM11.184720.8507+9.66599
611:07 PM12.690819.8603+7.16955
1211:13 PM13.733719.1508+5.41717
1811:19 PM14.300221.9686+7.66835
2411:25 PM14.898625.2185+10.3199
2911:30 PM15.164929.3819+14.2171

About Average True Range on a 1 minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.