Average True Range prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 10:05 PM to 10:34 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 26, 2026 at 10:05 PM ET, Average True Range on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 31.747. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:34 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

18.5424.7330.92Sep 26, 10:05 PM ET10:34 PM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 10:05 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

18.5424.7330.92Sep 26, 10:05 PM ET10:34 PM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:05 PM ET31.747
Projected value at 10:34 PM ET25.2603
Actual value at 10:34 PM ET24.0292
Projected change across the window-6.48661
Actual change across the window-7.71779
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.84×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.84 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (10:34 PM ET), where they sat 1.23118 apart, and furthest at bar 6 (10:11 PM ET) with a gap of 7.93113. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 1 (10:06 PM ET), a move of -8.71331. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:06 PM26.384923.0336-3.35126
610:11 PM25.643917.7127-7.93113
1210:17 PM25.452321.269-4.18333
1810:23 PM25.361918.9662-6.39572
2410:29 PM25.240120.1263-5.11376
2910:34 PM25.260324.0292-1.23118

About Average True Range on a 1 minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.