Average True Range prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 12, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 12, 2026, 11:33 AM to 12:02 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 12, 2026 at 11:33 AM ET, Average True Range on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 7.43881. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:02 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

7.98912.0816.17Sep 12, 11:33 AM ET12:02 PM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 11:33 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

7.98912.0816.17Sep 12, 11:33 AM ET12:02 PM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:33 AM ET7.43881
Projected value at 12:02 PM ET16.3911
Actual value at 12:02 PM ET12.7718
Projected change across the window+8.95231
Actual change across the window+5.333
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.68×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.68 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (12:02 PM ET), where they sat 3.61931 apart, and furthest at bar 18 (11:51 AM ET) with a gap of 7.07583. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 18 (11:51 AM ET), a move of -1.16741. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:34 AM12.2918.01026-4.28075
611:39 AM13.89228.98095-4.91124
1211:45 AM15.14949.30582-5.84358
1811:51 AM15.9228.84621-7.07583
2411:57 AM16.301810.4936-5.8082
2912:02 PM16.391112.7718-3.61931

About Average True Range on a 1 minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

AI chart assistant ATR for NinjaTrader Yes. Alongside the regular ATR, PredictIndicators shows where the ATR is predicted to go next on BTCUSD, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ATR indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

MetaTrader AI prediction error analysis for BTCUSD A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.