Average True Range forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 12, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 12, 2026, 11:32 AM to 12:01 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 12, 2026 at 11:32 AM ET, Average True Range on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 8.01026. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:01 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

8.54712.5516.55Sep 12, 11:32 AM ET12:01 PM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 11:32 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

8.54712.5516.55Sep 12, 11:32 AM ET12:01 PM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:32 AM ET8.01026
Projected value at 12:01 PM ET17.0828
Actual value at 12:01 PM ET13.7527
Projected change across the window+9.07252
Actual change across the window+5.74246
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.58×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.58 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (12:01 PM ET), where they sat 3.33006 apart, and furthest at bar 13 (11:45 AM ET) with a gap of 7.15665. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 17 (11:49 AM ET), a move of -1.16741. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:33 AM12.77198.62566-4.14624
611:38 AM14.26249.08333-5.17903
1211:44 AM15.4478.46934-6.97766
1811:50 AM16.14359.40592-6.73755
2411:56 AM16.644911.1754-5.46953
2912:01 PM17.082813.7527-3.33006

About Average True Range on a 1-minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.