Average True Range prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 12, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 12, 2026, 11:31 AM to 12:00 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 12, 2026 at 11:31 AM ET, Average True Range on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 8.62566. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:00 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

8.55412.3216.08Sep 12, 11:31 AM ET12:00 PM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 11:31 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

8.55412.3216.08Sep 12, 11:31 AM ET12:00 PM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:31 AM ET8.62566
Projected value at 12:00 PM ET16.5837
Actual value at 12:00 PM ET13.2722
Projected change across the window+7.95807
Actual change across the window+4.64649
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.71×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.71 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 29 (11:59 AM ET), where they sat 2.76593 apart, and furthest at bar 16 (11:47 AM ET) with a gap of 7.1216. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 16 (11:47 AM ET), a move of -1.16741. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:32 AM13.13098.0484-5.08248
611:37 AM14.46959.25127-5.2182
1211:43 AM15.44528.45006-6.99509
1811:49 AM16.04539.9756-6.06972
2411:55 AM16.503511.6742-4.82928
2912:00 PM16.583713.2722-3.31158

About Average True Range on a 1 minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Download NinjaTrader 8 predictive AI ATR PredictIndicators draws the predicted ATR for BTCUSD up to 30 bars ahead on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts, next to the ATR you already use. ATR indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

How to install an indicator in MetaTrader 5 for Bitcoin In NinjaTrader 8 import the zip with Tools → Import → NinjaScript Add On; in MetaTrader 5 run the setup. Then add PredictIndicators to your BTCUSD chart. How to install →

MT5 bar price prediction accuracy A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.