Average True Range prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 12, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 12, 2026, 11:14 AM to 11:43 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 12, 2026 at 11:14 AM ET, Average True Range on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 9.40592. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:43 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

6.3079.79613.28Sep 12, 11:14 AM ET11:43 AM ET
Projected Average True Range path, 30 bars from 11:14 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

6.3079.79613.28Sep 12, 11:14 AM ET11:43 AM ET
Recorded Average True Range values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:14 AM ET9.40592
Projected value at 11:43 AM ET13.0844
Actual value at 11:43 AM ET5.83881
Projected change across the window+3.6785
Actual change across the window-3.56711
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading20 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.03×

Reading this window

The projection called for Average True Range to rise, while it fell instead. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.03 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 20 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 10 (11:23 AM ET), where they sat 0.322189 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (11:43 AM ET) with a gap of 7.24561. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 14 (11:28 AM ET), a move of -2.99905. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:15 AM11.32929.9756-1.35356
611:20 AM11.928211.1754-0.752812
1211:26 AM12.383413.2722+0.888708
1811:32 AM12.74711.4483-1.29866
2411:38 AM12.957.05607-5.89391
2911:43 AM13.08445.83881-7.24561

About Average True Range on a 1 minute chart

Average True Range measures how much ground a market covers per bar. It describes volatility, not direction, so a rising ATR means wider bars rather than higher prices. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.