Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Russell 2000, 5 minute chart, November 13, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers November 13, 2026, 1:05 PM to 3:30 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On November 13, 2026 at 1:05 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Russell 2000 5 minute chart read 27.3454. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:30 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.421.7131.01Nov 13, 1:05 PM ET3:30 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 1:05 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.421.7131.01Nov 13, 1:05 PM ET3:30 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:05 PM ET27.3454
Projected value at 3:30 PM ET19.9535
Actual value at 3:30 PM ET32.2644
Projected change across the window-7.39192
Actual change across the window+4.91905
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.50×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall, while it rose instead. The projection overshot: it called for 1.50 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 14 (2:10 PM ET), where they sat 0.0149346 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (3:30 PM ET) with a gap of 12.311. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (3:30 PM ET), a move of +2.15857. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:10 PM16.038925.5492+9.51026
61:35 PM12.073419.7388+7.66539
122:05 PM12.997513.3179+0.32041
182:35 PM17.118516.8847-0.233806
243:05 PM15.259723.7461+8.48643
293:30 PM19.953532.2644+12.311

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 5 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of E mini Russell 2000 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.