Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Russell 2000, 5 minute chart, November 12, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers November 12, 2026, 10:31 AM to 12:56 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On November 12, 2026 at 10:31 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Russell 2000 5 minute chart read 22.4002. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:56 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

24.842.6460.49Nov 12, 10:31 AM ET12:56 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:31 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

24.842.6460.49Nov 12, 10:31 AM ET12:56 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:31 AM ET22.4002
Projected value at 12:56 PM ET36.5987
Actual value at 12:56 PM ET36.8894
Projected change across the window+14.1985
Actual change across the window+14.4892
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.98×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.98 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (12:56 PM ET), where they sat 0.29073 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (10:36 AM ET) with a gap of 36.1915. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 21 (12:16 PM ET), a move of +2.07593. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:36 AM58.906122.7146-36.1915
611:01 AM59.36323.5013-35.8617
1211:31 AM60.613330.4871-30.1262
1812:01 PM60.580833.6324-26.9483
2412:31 PM43.873234.5001-9.37307
2912:56 PM36.598736.8894+0.29073

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 5 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of E mini Russell 2000 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.