Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Russell 2000, 5 minute chart, November 11, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers November 11, 2026, 6:19 PM to 8:44 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On November 11, 2026 at 6:19 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Russell 2000 5 minute chart read 35.6935. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:44 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

19.7828.1436.49Nov 11, 6:19 PM ET8:44 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:19 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

19.7828.1436.49Nov 11, 6:19 PM ET8:44 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:19 PM ET35.6935
Projected value at 8:44 PM ET18.6628
Actual value at 8:44 PM ET21.5017
Projected change across the window-17.0307
Actual change across the window-14.1918
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading18 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.20×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.20 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 18 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 14 (7:24 PM ET), where they sat 2.19773 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (6:19 PM ET) with a gap of 13.7837. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (8:44 PM ET), a move of -1.82022. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:24 PM24.060735.5289+11.4682
66:49 PM31.329836.5511+5.22135
127:19 PM33.595336.4931+2.89778
187:49 PM28.601234.5381+5.93691
248:19 PM20.77429.1804+8.40641
298:44 PM18.662821.5017+2.83891

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 5 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of E mini Russell 2000 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Download MT5 predictive AI ADX Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on RTY, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NinjaTrader historical indicator prediction accuracy for RTY A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

NinjaTrader predicted stochastic crossover Yes. PredictIndicators runs inside NinjaTrader 8: the predicted RTY candles and the predicted indicators sit on your own chart, next to the indicators you already use. NinjaTrader 8 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.