Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 5 minute chart, September 16, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 16, 2026, 2:24 PM to 4:49 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 16, 2026 at 2:24 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 5 minute chart read 12.0793. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:49 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.1617.2222.27Sep 16, 2:24 PM ET4:49 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 2:24 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.1617.2222.27Sep 16, 2:24 PM ET4:49 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:24 PM ET12.0793
Projected value at 4:49 PM ET20.3218
Actual value at 4:49 PM ET22.9526
Projected change across the window+8.24244
Actual change across the window+10.8733
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.76×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.76 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 19 (3:54 PM ET), where they sat 0.166182 apart, and furthest at bar 11 (3:19 PM ET) with a gap of 4.14597. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 16 (3:44 PM ET), a move of +1.09308. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:29 PM13.434811.7905-1.64426
62:54 PM15.10512.9803-2.12465
123:24 PM17.271813.448-3.82374
183:54 PM18.458418.2923-0.166182
244:24 PM19.802721.1406+1.33786
294:49 PM20.321822.9526+2.63085

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 5 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.