Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 5 minute chart, September 16, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 16, 2026, 2:17 PM to 4:42 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 16, 2026 at 2:17 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 5 minute chart read 11.7905. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:42 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.2618.0323.81Sep 16, 2:17 PM ET4:42 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 2:17 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.2618.0323.81Sep 16, 2:17 PM ET4:42 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:17 PM ET11.7905
Projected value at 4:42 PM ET20.4865
Actual value at 4:42 PM ET24.5823
Projected change across the window+8.69599
Actual change across the window+12.7918
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.68×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.68 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 21 (3:57 PM ET), where they sat 6.67274e 05 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (4:42 PM ET) with a gap of 4.09582. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (4:42 PM ET), a move of +1.62972. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:22 PM13.367211.4795-1.88772
62:47 PM14.761112.4201-2.34099
123:17 PM17.179214.12-3.05923
183:47 PM18.994418.8679-0.126574
244:17 PM20.150221.166+1.01578
294:42 PM20.486524.5823+4.09582

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 5 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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MetaTrader can confidence scores change over time A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

MetaTrader AI trading indicator for Nasdaq 100 futures Yes. The same PredictIndicators predictions run on MetaTrader 5 charts, with one licence covering MT5 and NinjaTrader 8. MetaTrader 5 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.