Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 5 minute chart, September 16, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 16, 2026, 10:29 AM to 12:54 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 16, 2026 at 10:29 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 5 minute chart read 39.4282. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:54 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

20.4929.9939.5Sep 16, 10:29 AM ET12:54 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:29 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

20.4929.9939.5Sep 16, 10:29 AM ET12:54 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:29 AM ET39.4282
Projected value at 12:54 PM ET23.9169
Actual value at 12:54 PM ET28.3987
Projected change across the window-15.5112
Actual change across the window-11.0295
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.41×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.41 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 27 (12:39 PM ET), where they sat 0.0630221 apart, and furthest at bar 5 (10:54 AM ET) with a gap of 15.8036. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 11 (11:24 AM ET), a move of -2.22547. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:34 AM26.386139.4076+13.0214
610:59 AM24.685340.4375+15.7522
1211:29 AM24.146930.0259+5.879
1811:59 AM23.948419.4188-4.52962
2412:29 PM23.882722.6705-1.21212
2912:54 PM23.916928.3987+4.48176

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 5 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 5 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 2.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 2.5 hours of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Buy NinjaTrader AI ADX Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on NQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NinjaTrader predictive indicator confidence score for NQ A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Is there an AI chat inside MetaTrader 5 for NQ? A general chatbot only sees a screenshot. The PredictIndicators chat indicator reads your live NQ chart in NinjaTrader 8 or MT5, including every indicator you have open and the predicted candles. ChatGPT for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.