Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 2 minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 6:03 AM to 7:01 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 30, 2026 at 6:03 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 2 minute chart read 44.4513. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:01 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

24.2134.7745.33Sep 30, 6:03 AM ET7:01 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:03 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

24.2134.7745.33Sep 30, 6:03 AM ET7:01 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:03 AM ET44.4513
Projected value at 7:01 AM ET22.8731
Actual value at 7:01 AM ET25.4476
Projected change across the window-21.5782
Actual change across the window-19.0037
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.14×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.14 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 27 (6:55 AM ET), where they sat 2.28717 apart, and furthest at bar 3 (6:09 AM ET) with a gap of 22.5439. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 23 (6:49 AM ET), a move of -1.72157. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:05 AM23.651245.6408+21.9896
66:15 AM24.138444.3022+20.1639
126:27 AM24.107637.9605+13.8528
186:39 AM24.593434.407+9.81358
246:51 AM23.46826.7287+3.26078
297:01 AM22.873125.4476+2.5745

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 2 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 2 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 1 hours of trading, so the window above describes 1 hours of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Chat with chart ADX for NT8 PredictIndicators draws the predicted ADX for NQ up to 30 bars ahead on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts, next to the ADX you already use. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

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MetaTrader ADX prediction accuracy A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.