Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 2 minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 1:52 AM to 2:50 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 30, 2026 at 1:52 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 2 minute chart read 9.08032. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:50 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

9.90816.0722.23Sep 30, 1:52 AM ET2:50 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 1:52 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

9.90816.0722.23Sep 30, 1:52 AM ET2:50 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:52 AM ET9.08032
Projected value at 2:50 AM ET22.8753
Actual value at 2:50 AM ET22.0417
Projected change across the window+13.795
Actual change across the window+12.9614
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.06×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.06 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (2:50 AM ET), where they sat 0.833587 apart, and furthest at bar 3 (1:58 AM ET) with a gap of 10.8212. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (2:48 AM ET), a move of +1.42698. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:54 AM19.75299.40354-10.3493
62:04 AM20.878811.3025-9.57625
122:16 AM22.05814.8761-7.18187
182:28 AM22.148715.2259-6.9228
242:40 AM22.236116.5053-5.73075
292:50 AM22.875322.0417-0.833587

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 2 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 2 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 1 hours of trading, so the window above describes 1 hours of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Buy NinjaTrader 8 artificial intelligence ADX PredictIndicators draws the predicted ADX for NQ up to 30 bars ahead on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts, next to the ADX you already use. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

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MT5 bar price prediction accuracy A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.