Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 2 minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 9:27 PM to 10:25 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 29, 2026 at 9:27 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 2 minute chart read 18.944. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:25 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.8129.8845.96Sep 29, 9:27 PM ET10:25 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 9:27 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.8129.8845.96Sep 29, 9:27 PM ET10:25 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:27 PM ET18.944
Projected value at 10:25 PM ET32.9227
Actual value at 10:25 PM ET11.6489
Projected change across the window+13.9787
Actual change across the window-7.29515
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.92×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise, while it fell instead. The projection overshot: it called for 1.92 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 15 (9:55 PM ET), where they sat 10.8812 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (9:27 PM ET) with a gap of 26.7353. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 24 (10:15 PM ET), a move of -2.03591. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:29 PM46.610520.363-26.2475
69:39 PM47.610226.8666-20.7435
129:51 PM45.530232.2594-13.2708
1810:03 PM41.661526.8977-14.7638
2410:15 PM36.949620.5382-16.4114
2910:25 PM32.922711.6489-21.2738

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 2 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 2 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 1 hours of trading, so the window above describes 1 hours of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.