Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 2 minute chart, September 8, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 8, 2026, 10:40 AM to 11:38 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 8, 2026 at 10:40 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 2 minute chart read 41.8706. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:38 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

20.6730.640.54Sep 8, 10:40 AM ET11:38 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:40 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

20.6730.640.54Sep 8, 10:40 AM ET11:38 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:40 AM ET41.8706
Projected value at 11:38 AM ET20.7832
Actual value at 11:38 AM ET28.8302
Projected change across the window-21.0874
Actual change across the window-13.0404
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.62×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.62 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 24 (11:26 AM ET), where they sat 7.52242 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (10:40 AM ET) with a gap of 19.0388. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (11:38 AM ET), a move of -2.32597. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:42 AM22.055240.7062+18.6511
610:52 AM19.885234.9816+15.0963
1211:04 AM19.402131.6538+12.2517
1811:16 AM20.019932.7465+12.7266
2411:28 AM20.790128.8005+8.01046
2911:38 AM20.783228.8302+8.04701

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 2 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 2 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 1 hours of trading, so the window above describes 1 hours of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Download NinjaTrader AI ADX Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on NQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

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How to install an indicator in MetaTrader 5 for Nasdaq 100 futures In NinjaTrader 8 import the zip with Tools → Import → NinjaScript Add On; in MetaTrader 5 run the setup. Then add PredictIndicators to your NQ chart. How to install →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.