Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 2-minute chart, September 8, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 8, 2026, 10:26 AM to 11:24 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 8, 2026 at 10:26 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 2-minute chart read 34.1067. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:24 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

22.6328.0133.38Sep 8, 10:26 AM ET11:24 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:26 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

22.6328.0133.38Sep 8, 10:26 AM ET11:24 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:26 AM ET34.1067
Projected value at 11:24 AM ET22.9929
Actual value at 11:24 AM ET24.4551
Projected change across the window-11.1138
Actual change across the window-9.65155
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.15×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.15 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 29 (11:22 AM ET), where they sat 0.401246 apart, and furthest at bar 10 (10:46 AM ET) with a gap of 10.2668. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 24 (11:14 AM ET), a move of -2.40079. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:28 AM28.772733.4153+4.64258
610:38 AM24.688431.5603+6.87183
1210:50 AM22.8231.2061+8.38606
1811:02 AM22.607630.261+7.65336
2411:14 AM22.526224.2001+1.67393
2911:24 AM22.992924.4551+1.46226

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 2-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 2-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 1 hours of trading, so the window above describes 1 hours of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.