Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 2-minute chart, September 8, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 8, 2026, 8:54 AM to 9:52 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 8, 2026 at 8:54 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 2-minute chart read 39.5983. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:52 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

24.7833.0641.34Sep 8, 8:54 AM ET9:52 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 8:54 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

24.7833.0641.34Sep 8, 8:54 AM ET9:52 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:54 AM ET39.5983
Projected value at 9:52 AM ET23.6681
Actual value at 9:52 AM ET28.8425
Projected change across the window-15.9302
Actual change across the window-10.7558
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading20 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.48×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.48 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 20 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (9:52 AM ET), where they sat 5.17446 apart, and furthest at bar 7 (9:08 AM ET) with a gap of 13.9121. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (9:52 AM ET), a move of -2.02745. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:56 AM28.297739.6096+11.3119
69:06 AM28.564142.4548+13.8907
129:18 AM26.604138.8441+12.2399
189:30 AM25.287438.025+12.7376
249:42 AM24.545435.2854+10.74
299:52 AM23.668128.8425+5.17446

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 2-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 2-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 1 hours of trading, so the window above describes 1 hours of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.