Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 2-minute chart, September 8, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 8, 2026, 8:07 AM to 9:05 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 8, 2026 at 8:07 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 2-minute chart read 35.2854. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:05 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

18.8831.4143.94Sep 8, 8:07 AM ET9:05 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 8:07 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

18.8831.4143.94Sep 8, 8:07 AM ET9:05 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:07 AM ET35.2854
Projected value at 9:05 AM ET19.3797
Actual value at 9:05 AM ET45.6264
Projected change across the window-15.9057
Actual change across the window+10.3409
Bars moving the same direction23 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.54×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall, while it rose instead. The projection overshot: it called for 1.54 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 79% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 12 (8:29 AM ET), where they sat 9.86141 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (9:05 AM ET) with a gap of 26.2467. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (9:03 AM ET), a move of +2.77536. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:09 AM17.378434.3248+16.9464
68:19 AM17.192528.101+10.9085
128:31 AM17.797428.0474+10.25
188:43 AM18.409833.1264+14.7166
248:55 AM18.930333.134+14.2037
299:05 AM19.379745.6264+26.2467

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 2-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 2-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 1 hours of trading, so the window above describes 1 hours of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.