Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 2-minute chart, September 8, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 8, 2026, 6:44 AM to 7:42 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 8, 2026 at 6:44 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 2-minute chart read 48.7531. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:42 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

23.8336.4949.15Sep 8, 6:44 AM ET7:42 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:44 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

23.8336.4949.15Sep 8, 6:44 AM ET7:42 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:44 AM ET48.7531
Projected value at 7:42 AM ET22.1337
Actual value at 7:42 AM ET23.6275
Projected change across the window-26.6194
Actual change across the window-25.1256
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.06×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.06 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (7:42 AM ET), where they sat 1.49378 apart, and furthest at bar 6 (6:56 AM ET) with a gap of 21.0737. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 19 (7:22 AM ET), a move of -1.99272. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:46 AM35.471948.3186+12.8467
66:56 AM29.780150.8539+21.0737
127:08 AM26.557141.2782+14.7211
187:20 AM24.456732.1535+7.69679
247:32 AM22.939729.1251+6.18538
297:42 AM22.133723.6275+1.49378

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 2-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 2-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 1 hours of trading, so the window above describes 1 hours of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.