Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 2-minute chart, September 8, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 8, 2026, 6:36 AM to 7:34 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 8, 2026 at 6:36 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 2-minute chart read 48.9609. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:34 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

21.9935.5149.04Sep 8, 6:36 AM ET7:34 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:36 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

21.9935.5149.04Sep 8, 6:36 AM ET7:34 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:36 AM ET48.9609
Projected value at 7:34 AM ET24.5263
Actual value at 7:34 AM ET20.1725
Projected change across the window-24.4347
Actual change across the window-28.7884
Bars moving the same direction24 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.85×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.85 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 83% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 24 (7:22 AM ET), where they sat 0.0150244 apart, and furthest at bar 3 (6:42 AM ET) with a gap of 12.1566. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 15 (7:06 AM ET), a move of -1.99272. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:38 AM40.547749.8724+9.32461
66:48 AM34.782344.7244+9.94213
127:00 AM30.22135.7221+5.50115
187:12 AM27.336728.4364+1.09973
247:24 AM25.40324.6296-0.773419
297:34 AM24.526320.1725-4.35371

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 2-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 2-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 1 hours of trading, so the window above describes 1 hours of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.