Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 2-minute chart, September 8, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 8, 2026, 6:33 AM to 7:31 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 8, 2026 at 6:33 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 2-minute chart read 50.8539. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:31 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

21.6635.3449.02Sep 8, 6:33 AM ET7:31 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:33 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

21.6635.3449.02Sep 8, 6:33 AM ET7:31 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:33 AM ET50.8539
Projected value at 7:31 AM ET25.1796
Actual value at 7:31 AM ET21.1521
Projected change across the window-25.6743
Actual change across the window-29.7018
Bars moving the same direction26 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.86×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.86 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 90% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 19 (7:09 AM ET), where they sat 0.0531331 apart, and furthest at bar 28 (7:29 AM ET) with a gap of 5.71892. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 13 (6:59 AM ET), a move of -1.99272. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:35 AM44.679650.0576+5.37798
66:45 AM39.244641.2782+2.03362
126:57 AM33.489732.1535-1.33616
187:09 AM29.178229.1251-0.0531331
247:21 AM26.824622.6016-4.22296
297:31 AM25.179621.1521-4.0275

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 2-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 2-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 1 hours of trading, so the window above describes 1 hours of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.