Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, October 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 28, 2026, 8:18 PM to 8:47 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On October 28, 2026 at 8:18 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 16.1954. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:47 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

11.1616.4321.7Oct 28, 8:18 PM ET8:47 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 8:18 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

11.1616.4321.7Oct 28, 8:18 PM ET8:47 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:18 PM ET16.1954
Projected value at 8:47 PM ET22.4049
Actual value at 8:47 PM ET21.0509
Projected change across the window+6.20952
Actual change across the window+4.8555
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.28×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.28 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 2 (8:19 PM ET), where they sat 0.0225635 apart, and furthest at bar 5 (8:23 PM ET) with a gap of 3.22444. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (8:47 PM ET), a move of +1.43242. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:19 PM15.714615.7372+0.0225635
68:24 PM12.624415.7695+3.14513
128:30 PM10.489411.711+1.2216
188:36 PM12.497412.7327+0.235362
248:42 PM15.313216.7343+1.42106
298:47 PM22.404921.0509-1.35401

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Automated analysis ADX for MetaTrader 5 PredictIndicators draws the predicted ADX for NQ up to 30 bars ahead on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts, next to the ADX you already use. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

How to install an indicator in MetaTrader 5 for Nasdaq 100 futures In NinjaTrader 8 import the zip with Tools → Import → NinjaScript Add On; in MetaTrader 5 run the setup. Then add PredictIndicators to your NQ chart. How to install →

MT5 ADX prediction accuracy A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.